Local Race Will Turn On Voter Turnout
(May 21, 2015; Cowichan Valley, BC) The local citizens’ group One Cowichan released a riding-level poll today testing the current level of support for the choices on the ballot this October in the new federal riding of Cowichan-Malahat-Langford.
The poll was done in collaboration with the Dogwood Initiative looking also at three other ridings, and was done using live telephone calls by the firm Insights West. The top line results for the local riding are:
|
|
Total |
|
NDP |
32% |
|
Conservative |
22% |
|
Liberal |
12% |
|
Green |
8% |
|
Other |
7% |
|
Undecided |
19% |
Digging into age demographics, however, shows a closer race. The NDP wins the 18-34 age group at 45%, but the Conservatives win the over 55 age group at 35% to the NDP’s 27%. Elections Canada estimates that voter turnout for 18-34 year olds is 38-45%, whereas for 55-74 year olds it is 71-75%.
“The NDP is ahead in this early poll, but the Conservatives have the advantage of greater support among older and more reliable voters,” said Matt Price of One Cowichan. “This race may well come down to which party is able to get its supporters out to the voting booth in October.”
The poll also tested people’s opinions on a range of issues from oil tankers to electoral reform to government surveillance, with the question below and results in the table.
All things considered, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? Is that somewhat or strongly agree/disagree?
|
|
Strongly Agree |
Somewhat Agree |
Somewhat Disagree |
Strongly Disagree |
DK/Other |
|
BC would benefit from more oil tankers on the coast |
11% |
16% |
12% |
52% |
9% |
|
It is time for Canada to adopt a new voting system for federal elections. |
40% |
29% |
14% |
8% |
9% |
|
Government surveillance over citizens has gone too far. |
33% |
26% |
28% |
9% |
4% |
|
Canada is taking appropriate steps to combat climate change. |
8% |
27% |
25% |
32% |
7% |
“It’s clear that oil tanker expansion on our coast continues to rouse local passions, but voters are also concerned about government spying and climate change,” said Price. “And, there’s lots of support to replace our outdated system with something more fair so that people don’t have to worry as much about vote splitting.”
Results are based on a telephone study conducted from conducted from May 8 to May 11, 2015, among 302 adult residents of the Cowichan-Malahat-Langford riding. The data has been statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 5.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. More detail can be found here (pdf).
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